Iran’s good cop, bad cop game implodes as experts warn regime views US as 'evil'

Days after Iran’s leadership projected a unified front, undermining the long-cited moderate-vs.-hardliner divide, President Donald Trump canceled planned talks with Tehran in Islamabad, Pakistan, citing "infighting and confusion" inside the regime.

Iranian-American experts argue that social media posts from Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, President Masoud Pezeshkian and other key officials reveal that the "good cop, bad cop" tactic that the regime exploited to deceive adversaries and secure generous concessions in nuclear negotiations has collapsed.

In a Truth Social post on Saturday, Trump announced he canceled the trip, citing "too much time wasted on traveling" and "too much work!"

"Besides which, there is tremendous infighting and confusion within their ‘leadership,'" the president added, noting "nobody knows who is in charge, including them."

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"Also, we have all the cards, they have none!" Trump wrote. "If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!!"

The implosion of the hardline-moderate dichotomy within the regime could have profound consequences for Trump’s approach to the atomic talks in Islamabad, experts said. Trump appeared to allude to a blurry divide between factions within Iran last week.

"Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is! They just don’t know! The infighting is between the ‘Hardliners,’ who have been losing BADLY on the battlefield, and the ‘Moderates,’ who are not very moderate at all (but gaining respect!), and it is CRAZY!" Trump wrote in an X post Thursday.

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Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei quickly fired back, claiming "due to the strange unity created among compatriots, a fracture has occurred in the enemy."

"With practical gratitude for this blessing, cohesion has become even greater and more steel-like, and the enemies will become more wretched and diminished," Khamenei wrote in a reply. "The enemy's media operations, by targeting the minds and psyches of the people, intend to undermine national unity and security; may our negligence not allow this sinister intent to come to fruition."

Mariam Memarsadeghi, a senior fellow at The Macdonald-Laurier Institute and founder and director of the Cyrus Forum for Iran's Future, told Fox News Digital the Islamic Republic has, for decades, fooled Western policymakers by sending moderates to negotiations as a "window dressing for its terror and subjugation."

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The officials would then tell their counterparts that they are under pressure from hardliners, implying that the West must make concessions to strengthen them internally.

"Because of the war, the Trump administration is in a remarkably advantageous situation vis-à-vis the imperial terror state, one never before attempted, much less achieved," Memarsadeghi said. "But every time Trump says regime change has already happened, he denies America the opportunity to finally, truly be rid of the world’s top sponsor of terror and the existential threat it poses not just to the people of Iran but to all the world."

Navid Mohebbi, who worked as a Persian media analyst for the State Department's Public Affairs Bureau, cautioned that while rivalries and factions do exist within the Islamic Republic, they are united on the regime’s core principles.

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"Their disagreements are primarily over tactics, not fundamental direction," Mohebbi told Fox News Digital, stressing that real decision-making power in Iran has always rested with the supreme leader and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

"So-called moderates have never had the final say on key strategic issues and are often used to soften the regime’s image abroad," he said. "From the perspective of the Iranian people, there has been little difference. Across administrations labeled 'moderate' or 'hardline,' the system has consistently relied on repression."

Mohebbi cited the example of Iranian regime President Hassan Rouhani, who presented himself as a moderate, but whose security forces violently killed 1,500 protesters during the November 2019 uprising.

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"The same pattern has continued under Masoud Pezeshkian in the January 2026 protest massacre, reinforcing the reality that these labels have not translated into meaningful change on the ground," he said.

A regional official, however, insisted there are clashes between moderates and hardliners in Iran. The official told Fox News Digital that Pezeshkian is a moderate, but he "could not even make good on his campaign promise regarding internet freedom. To be honest, he’s not even been able to do s---."

"The joint reaction by the heads of the three branches of power was in response to Trump’s reference to the issue of rift, and also to the fact that there are indeed hardliners and moderates," the official added. "Look, whenever Iran wants to make concessions, they throw moderates under the bus so that the moderates make a deal, and then, the hardliners blame them for the same concessions all of them had agreed to make."

Lawdan Bazargan, who was imprisoned by the Islamic Republic in the 1980s for her political dissident activities, told Fox News Digital that what officials are seeing now is not the disappearance of the divide, but the exposure of what that divide actually was.

"In reality, all of these figures — Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf [speaker of Iran’s parliament], Saeed Jalili [member of the Expediency Discernment Council], Pezeshkian, Ahmad Vahidi [head of the IRGC], Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei [head of Iran’s judiciary] — operate within the same ideological framework," Bazargan said. "They are all committed to the preservation of the system, the projection of power in the region, and confrontation with what they define as ‘the forces of evil,’ namely the United States and Israel."

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Latin American leftists met in Spain, signaling push against US influence on continent

MEXICO CITY: The recent high-profile gathering of leftist leaders in Barcelona, convened by Spain’s socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, is drawing increasing attention for what analysts describe as a broader geopolitical positioning that could challenge U.S. influence across Latin America and beyond.

The summit brought together Brazil president Lula da Silva, Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, and Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum. Framed as a platform for addressing inequality, climate change and the rise of right-wing political movements, yet the rhetoric coming from it has raised questions in Washington and across the region about whether a more coordinated political counterweight to the United States is taking shape.

Without naming the Trump administration, Sánchez warned of the "normalization of the use of force" and "attempts to undermine international law", as criticism of U.S. foreign policy. He also pushed for reforms to global institutions, arguing that the current system no longer reflects today’s geopolitical realities, a position that implicitly challenges long-standing U.S. leadership in those bodies.

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"The Barcelona summit reflects a deliberate effort by Pedro Sánchez to position himself as a leading figure within an emerging progressive bloc that is increasingly critical of U.S. foreign policy under President Trump," Juan Angel Soto, founder and CEO of Fortius Consulting told Fox News Digital.

"This positioning is particularly complex given Spain’s structural anchoring in both the European Union and NATO, which traditionally align it closely with Washington. However, Sánchez has simultaneously deepened ties with the Global South, evident in his growing proximity to China, as well as to leaders such as Lula, Sheinbaum, and Petro, suggesting a dual-track foreign policy that seeks greater autonomy from U.S. influence," Soto said.

The Colombian leader tied global tensions directly to economic and energy systems, arguing that fossil fuel dependence has fueled conflict and inequality, an argument that aligns with broader criticism of Western-led economic models.

Roberto Salinas León, Director of International Affairs at Universidad de la Libertad in Mexico City, told Fox News Digital: "The ill-named summit "In Defense of Democracy" held in Barcelona brought together notable "progressives" with an aim to bring together a global contingent opposed to, well, Trump 2.0. How convenient."

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"Petro stated that ‘Latin American progressivism is a ray of hope for a humanity in crisis.’ Yet these would-be spokespersons for democracy have supported such inhumane brutal dictatorships like Cuba, Nicaragua, Maduro’s Venezuela, Iran, and others. This gathering is more aptly characterized as a political mascara of electoral autocracies, each leader undermining the institutional checks and balances of open liberal democracies," he said.

Brazil’s Lula criticized what he described as interventionist policies by major powers and called for a rebalancing of global governance, including changes to the U.N. Security Council. At one point, he characterized recent U.S. leadership as contributing to global instability, reinforcing a central theme of the summit: that the current international order needs to be redefined.

"The new Cold War is being waged between China and the United States; it is this very rivalry that is at stake in every country participating in the summit. Lula’s concern regarding the resurgence of the right has become patently obvious, particularly when observing Argentina and Chile, where the victories of Milei and Kast have ushered in ‘winds of change.’ We are, quite literally, living through times reminiscent of the fall of the Berlin Wall, specifically, the collapse of ‘21st-century socialism’ across Hispanic America, and this is precisely what has them so worried," Brazilian political analyst Sandra Bronzina told Fox News Digital

"When the global progressive left rails against the United States, talking about sovereignty and peace, or speaking out against war, they are not doing so out of mere altruism or good intentions. Rather, they are driven by a shadowy self-interest: ensuring that China continues to colonize our nations, a process that is, evidently, already well underway."

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Mexico’s Sheinbaum underscored the principle of national sovereignty, reiterating Latin America’s longstanding emphasis on non-intervention. She joined other leaders in opposing sanctions on countries such as Cuba, signaling a willingness to coordinate positions that diverge sharply from U.S. policy in the region.

Taken together, analysts say the messaging out of Barcelona suggests the early stages of a loosely aligned bloc, one that is increasingly willing to challenge U.S. positions on global governance, regional policy and economic strategy.

Yet even as leaders in Barcelona warn of a rising right-wing threat, political realities across the Americas tell a different story, one that may resonate more directly with U.S. audiences.

In Argentina, sweeping economic reforms focused on deregulation and fiscal discipline have captured global attention as an alternative to state-led models. In El Salvador, aggressive security policies have dramatically reduced violence. And in Ecuador, a renewed focus on law-and-order and institutional control is emerging as a response to escalating cartel violence.

Analysts say these examples highlight a counter to the Barcelona narrative in that a significant portion of the region is moving toward policies centered on security, market reforms and stronger state authority — priorities that often align more closely with U.S. strategic interests.

Experts say the contrast is striking. On one side, a group of leaders in Barcelona is calling for a rethinking of global systems long associated with U.S. leadership. On the other, governments across the hemisphere are experimenting with approaches that emphasize economic liberalization and strong security measures.

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US embassy in London warns to 'exercise increased caution' near Jewish sites in UK, Europe after attacks

The U.S. embassy in London on Friday warned Americans to "exercise increased caution" while visiting Jewish and American areas in the U.K. and in Europe because of a recent rise in threats.

"The U.S. Embassy in London notes recent attacks and threats targeting Jewish and American institutions in the United Kingdom and Europe," the alert said. "U.S. citizens, particularly those visiting institutions serving Jewish or American interests, should remain alert and exercise increased caution."

The embassy further advised Americans to remain alert while visiting tourist and expat areas and houses of worship, review personal security plans and to check local media for updates.

Concerned citizens can also enroll in the State Department's Safe Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive travel and security updates.

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The advisory followed a series of recent antisemitic attacks in the U.K. and in Europe, including an arson attack on four ambulances linked to Jewish charity in London on March 23, an April 18 attack on the Kenton United Synagogue in London, and a March explosion at a Jewish school in Amsterdam that authorities called a "targeted attack against the Jewish community."

No one was injured, but the school was damaged.

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U.K. authorities are investigating whether "thugs for hire" backed by Iran are instigating the attacks in London, GB News reported.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer told the Jewish Chronicle: "In relation to malign state actors more generally, proscription, we do need legislation in order to take necessary measures, and that is legislation that we're bringing forward as soon as we can."

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US targets Chinese refinery in sweeping Iran oil crackdown, sanctions ‘shadow fleet’ tankers

The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on Friday sanctioned a major Chinese oil refinery and dozens of ships tied to Iran's "shadow fleet," escalating efforts to choke off Tehran's main source of revenue.

Officials said in a press release the move targets Hengli Petrochemical, one of Iran’s largest oil buyers, along with a network of shipping companies and tankers responsible for transporting billions of dollars worth of petroleum products to foreign markets. 

The Treasury Department identified these "shadow fleet" vessels as the financial lifeline for Iran's "unstable regime."

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The crackdown is part of Economic Fury, a broader campaign to squeeze Iran’s economy by limiting its ability to sell oil abroad, revenue the U.S. says funds the regime’s military and destabilizing activities across the Middle East.

"Economic Fury is imposing a financial stranglehold on the Iranian regime, hampering its aggression in the Middle East and helping to curtail its nuclear ambitions," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.

Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery Co. is a China-based "teapot" refinery, a term used for independent facilities known for purchasing discounted crude, including from sanctioned countries.

The refinery, one of China’s largest independent facilities, has received Iranian oil cargoes from sanctioned shadow fleet vessels since at least 2023. Hengli has also purchased oil tied to Iran’s armed forces, generating hundreds of millions of dollars for the Iranian military.

Hengli has also received shipments tied to Sepehr Energy Jahan Nama Pars Company, a firm identified by U.S. officials as a front for Iran’s armed forces that helps facilitate oil sales abroad. 

The company operates on behalf of Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff, using a network of intermediaries and vessels to move sanctioned crude, with proceeds helping fund the country’s military programs and regional proxy groups.

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The new sanctions also target the network that makes these oil sales possible, a "shadow fleet" of aging tankers and shell companies that move petroleum across global markets while evading sanctions and obscuring the origin of shipments.

These ships avoid detection by transferring cargo from one tanker to another in the open ocean. Treasury officials said 19 vessels were targeted in the action.

The move is part of the Trump administration’s renewed "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, aimed at cutting off the regime’s primary source of revenue through oil exports and sanctions enforcement.

U.S. officials say oil exports remain the backbone of Iran’s economy, and efforts to restrict those flows are designed to limit the government’s ability to fund its military, support proxy groups and advance its nuclear program.

Treasury officials warned that additional sanctions are likely as the U.S. continues targeting the networks, intermediaries and buyers that enable Iran to move oil on the global market.

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US economic chokehold on Iran reaches peak leverage as collapse risks emerge

U.S. economic pressure on Iran has reached one of its most powerful points in decades, but inconsistent enforcement has prevented sanctions from achieving their full impact, according to a former Treasury sanctions expert.

Miad Maleki, who played a central role in Treasury Department sanctions campaigns against Iran and its network of proxy groups, said in an on-camera interview the current moment reflects a rare convergence of economic, political and diplomatic leverage against Tehran.

"We’ve never had the level of leverage that we have today with Iran in the history of our conflict … since 1979," Maleki said. 

His assessment comes as President Donald Trump signaled escalating pressure Thursday, writing on Truth Social that the United States has "total control over the Strait of Hormuz" and that it is effectively "sealed up tight" until Iran agrees to a deal.

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Maleki argues the current moment marks a turning point because multiple pressure tools — sanctions, a U.S. naval blockade, and tighter enforcement — are being applied simultaneously for the first time in years. Unlike previous cycles, he said, the strategy is now directly targeting Iran’s oil exports and the networks that help move them, raising the risk of a rapid economic squeeze.

He said Iran may run out of oil storage in as little as two to three weeks, forcing production cuts, while gasoline shortages could hit on a similar timeline due to heavy reliance on imports. Combined with an estimated $435 million in daily economic losses, the pressure could spill into the financial system, leaving the regime struggling to pay salaries and raising the risk of renewed unrest.

Maleki said the real leverage lies in sustained economic pressure and enforcement.

At the core of that pressure is an Iranian economy he describes as "on the verge of collapse," driven by years of sanctions and compounded by recent disruptions.

He pointed to triple-digit food inflation, a sharply devalued currency and a roughly 90% collapse in purchasing power, along with potential long-term oil revenue losses of up to $14 billion annually.

Maleki, who is currently a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, estimated that current conditions are costing Iran "about $435 million a day in combined economic damage … with the blockade and closure of the Strait of Hormuz."

A key driver of that pressure is the Strait of Hormuz, long viewed as one of Iran’s primary tools of leverage in global energy markets. Maleki said the dynamic has shifted.

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"Iran’s economy relies on the Strait of Hormuz more than any other economy," he said, calling its closure a form of "economic self-sabotage."

While countries in Asia — including Japan, South Korea, India and China — are most exposed to disruptions, many have built up reserves. "Japan’s oil reserve is pretty significant. Same with China," Maleki said.

Still, the region remains heavily dependent on the waterway, with roughly 75% of liquefied natural gas supplies for countries including India, China and South Korea flowing through the strait.

Inside Iran, however, vulnerabilities are more immediate. Despite vast oil reserves, the country imports between 30 million to 60 million liters of gasoline per day to cover a domestic shortfall of up to 35 million liters.

"If they run out of gasoline… they’re going to have a major crisis domestically," Maleki said, noting that past shortages and price hikes have triggered widespread protests.

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The economic pressure is being reinforced by a U.S. naval blockade targeting Iran’s oil exports, the regime’s primary source of revenue.

A senior administration official said the Treasury Department is intensifying enforcement under what it describes as an "Economic Fury" campaign, using financial and maritime tools in tandem to squeeze Iran’s revenue streams.

The official said the strategy focuses on "systematically degrading Iran’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds," including by constraining maritime trade through the naval blockade, which targets Iran’s primary source of revenue from oil exports.

Financial pressure is also expanding globally. The official said Treasury has warned banks in China, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates and Oman that facilitating Iranian trade could expose them to secondary sanctions, signaling a more aggressive approach to enforcement beyond Iran’s borders.

Treasury has issued sanctions on more than 1,000 targets since 2025 under the current maximum pressure campaign, the official said, aimed at disrupting Iran’s oil trade and financial networks.

The official added that Iran is facing immediate logistical constraints, warning that storage capacity at Kharg Island — the country’s main oil export terminal — could be filled within days if exports remain blocked, potentially forcing production shut-ins.

"Treasury will continue to freeze the funds stolen by the corrupt leadership on behalf of the people of Iran," the official warned.

A new analysis from United Against Nuclear Iran said the blockade is already deterring high-value shipments, even as some Iran-linked vessels continue to transit the region.

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"Effectiveness should not be measured by the total number of Iran-linked vessels at sea," the group said in an April 22 statement. "But by whether the U.S. is disrupting high-value Iranian oil exports… and deterring large-scale illicit shipments."

At least 29 vessels have been turned around or forced back to port, including several very large crude carriers, according to the report.

The blockade, announced April 12 and enforced by U.S. Central Command, is designed to cut off Iranian crude exports, particularly shipments to China, while prioritizing high-impact targets.

While sanctions are clearly biting, Maleki said their impact has been limited by inconsistent enforcement across successive U.S. administrations.

U.S. sanctions on Iran have been in place in various forms for years, targeting the country’s oil exports, banking sector and access to global financial systems.

Under the Obama administration, sanctions pressure was partially lifted under the nuclear deal. The first Trump administration reimposed "maximum pressure," but enforcement ramped up gradually and lasted only a limited period. The Biden administration later eased enforcement in pursuit of diplomacy.

He argued that cycles of tightening and relief — including sanctions rollback under the Iran nuclear deal and pauses in enforcement — have allowed Tehran to adapt.

"What’s different now," Maleki said, is the combination of sustained sanctions with real-time enforcement measures that directly restrict Iran’s ability to export oil — a step that was largely absent in earlier phases.

To maximize pressure, Maleki said Washington must sustain enforcement, particularly through secondary sanctions targeting foreign banks and companies facilitating Iranian trade.

Crucially, he downplayed the likelihood that outside powers could offset the pressure.

"I can’t really point to any other nation… that is going to jump in and give the Iranian regime a lifeline," he said.

"At some point in the next few weeks to a few months, they’re going to face not just gasoline shortages and oil production disruptions, but also a major banking problem to pay salaries of government employees and IRGC personnel," he said. "Iranians run out of patience again, as they did before, and they’re back on the street. I’m not quite sure if you’re going to have unpaid IRGC forces willing to go back on the street and kill their fellow Iranians who have the same grievances that they have now, which is a collapsed economy."

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Iran escalates Hormuz 'tit-for-tat,' seizes ship tied to billionaire close to Trump, Macron

Tensions escalated in the Strait of Hormuz April 22 after Iran’s IRGC seized two vessels in what analysts describe as "tit-for-tat" retaliation against the U.S. And one ship is linked to a billionaire shipping family tied to Presidents Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron.

Video aired on Iranian state TV purportedly shows IRGC soldiers seizing the container ships in the Strait, Reuters said Thursday.

One vessel, the MSC Francesca, is owned by MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company, which was founded by Italian billionaire Gianluigi Aponte and is now controlled by his two children, Fox News Digital has learned.

"Some 20 Iranians armed to the teeth stormed the ship. Sailors are under Iranian control, their movements on the ship are limited but the Iranians are treating them well," a relative of one of the MSC Francesca seafarers told Reuters.

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"The ship is anchored 9 nautical miles from the Iranian coast. Negotiations between MSC and Iran are ongoing, our sailors are fine," Montenegro's minister of maritime affairs, Filip Radulovic, told state broadcaster RTCG.

Maritime intelligence firm Windward AI pointed to IRGC "tit-for-tat" tactics given the recent MSC vessel seizure.

This followed a U.S. naval blockade imposed on April 13, with Tehran warning of retaliation after U.S. forces also seized an Iranian vessel.

"The IRGC attacked three ships. It also captured and took in two of them — the MSC Francesca and the Epaminondas — while the Euphoria managed to get away," Windward AI co-founder Ami Daniel told Fox News Digital.

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"This is a ‘tit-for-tat’ exercise by the IRGC, which, along with the Houthis, has long claimed MSC is connected to Israel.

"Aponte, owner and chairman, has a Jewish wife, and MSC calls in Israel; however, so do all major liners."

Diego Aponte, Gianluigi’s son, had been making "inroads with Trump’s circle," Bloomberg reported April 13.

He also helped arrange a November 2025 White House meeting with Swiss business leaders that led to a preliminary deal to reduce the 39% tariffs imposed on Switzerland over the summer.

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Over the last year, MSC’s relationship with the White House also positioned father Gianluigi Aponte as a key player in a $19 billion deal with Li Ka-shing, as MSC and BlackRock moved to acquire two Panama Canal ports under pressure from Trump to place them in "friendly" hands, according to the outlet.

With a net worth of at least $37 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, it is Gianluigi Aponte and his wife, Rafaela Aponte-Diamant, who appear to mingle with world leaders.

The MSC executive chairman and Rafaela have been photographed with French President Emmanuel Macron.

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Rafaela is also reportedly related to Alexis Kohler (his mother is said to be her cousin), who served as Macron’s secretary-general from May 2017 to April 14, 2025, and was described as "Macron’s second brain."

The Aponte family’s vessel, carrying about 40 crew members, was taken toward Iran’s port of Bandar Abbas by the Iranian navy, sources told Reuters Thursday.

Four crew members, including the captain, are from Montenegro, officials said, while Croatia’s foreign ministry confirmed two Croatian nationals are also aboard.

MSC declined to comment, Reuters confirmed.

The IRGC Navy claimed both vessels captured "were operating without the necessary permits."

According to Lloyd’s List, the 2008-built MSC Francesca "normally operates in service between the U.S. West Coast, Asia and the Middle East Gulf."

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Hezbollah disarmament deadlock risks civil war, analysts say, as US prepares for Israel–Lebanon talks

As Israel and Lebanon return to U.S.-brokered talks Thursday in Washington, the central question is the one that has derailed every previous attempt at a lasting deal: What happens to Hezbollah, an Iran-backed terror organization?

An Israeli official told Fox News Digital that the meeting, hosted by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, will include senior U.S. officials — U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa and Counselor Michael Needham — alongside Israeli Ambassador Yechiel Leiter and Lebanese Ambassador Nada Hamadeh.

A State Department spokesperson called the initial April 14 meeting "productive." "We will continue to facilitate direct, good-faith discussions between the two governments," the spokesperson told Fox News Digital.

The meeting comes as a fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire, reached in mid-April, is holding for now, offering what officials describe as a narrow window for diplomacy after weeks of cross-border fighting.

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But the truce has not resolved the underlying conflict — only paused it.

The latest escalation began March 2, when Hezbollah launched attacks on Israel’s northern border, opening a new front in the regional war days after U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran Feb. 28, according to prior reporting.

Israel responded with sustained air and ground operations across southern Lebanon aimed at pushing Hezbollah forces away from the border, while Hezbollah continued firing rockets and drones into northern Israel.

The fighting displaced more than a million people in Lebanon and forced Israeli civilians into shelters, underscoring the scale of the escalation.

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Now, even as the guns have temporarily quieted, the core conditions that led to the war remain unchanged — leaving negotiators to grapple with the same unresolved question at the heart of the conflict.

A senior U.S. official familiar with the negotiations described the core dilemma: Hezbollah will not agree to disarm without a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, while Israel will not withdraw without Hezbollah disarming.

International mechanisms — including the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and a multilateral coordination group — have been working to bridge that gap since late 2024, without success.

The same official also indicated that Lebanon’s president, Joseph Aoun, is not necessarily the decisive factor in these discussions, but Nabih Berri, speaker of the nation's House, is the one with true authority, not Aoun.

At the same time, Hezbollah has remained opposed to any contact with Israel and continues to exert significant influence over Lebanon’s political and security decisions, complicating U.S. efforts to advance talks.

Inside Lebanon, however, frustration with Hezbollah appears to be growing.

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"There is a growing sense across Lebanon that any U.S.-brokered negotiation track could be a rare opportunity to restore balance to the state," said Rami Naeem, a Lebanese journalist and analyst with Jusoor News.

"Hezbollah’s continued military and political dominance is widely seen as a central driver of the collapse, and even a gradual or indirect opening with Israel could help rebuild state institutions and their role."

Mariam Kasrawani, a Lebanese analyst at Jusoor News, said criticism is becoming more explicit.

"It is becoming harder to ignore the depth of the crisis," she said. "Some are now saying it plainly: Hezbollah has taken Lebanon as a whole — and Shia in particular — to a very bad place."

"I’m not at all optimistic," said Barak Seener of the Henry Jackson Society think tank.

"Lebanon is far too weak and divided to force Hezbollah to disarm. And Hezbollah… is so enmeshed in Lebanon’s political system. Any attempt to disarm Hezbollah risks civil war."

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Instead, Seener said, the talks are focused on limited, tactical goals.

"Talks are focused on ceasefire expansion, Hezbollah withdrawal from border zones, and an expanded presence of the Lebanese army… talks are not at all focused on disarmament."

That gap underscores what he described as the real nature of the process.

"I think that these talks are doomed to failure," Seener said. "I think Israel is currently engaged in conflict management."

Adding to the uncertainty are reports from the Saudi daily Asharq Al-Awsat that the U.S. may press Lebanon to repeal its 1955 Israel Boycott Law, which bans contact with Israelis.

The report frames such a move as a step toward normalization but provides no details and has not been confirmed by U.S. or Lebanese officials.

Fox News Digital reached out for comment from the State Department and the Lebanese Embassy in D.C. but did not receive a response in time for publication.

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