Hormuz crisis spurs $24B Iraq trade corridor as Gulf routes shift

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is driving nations’ efforts to develop alternative Gulf-to-Europe trade routes, with Iraq’s $24 billion "Development Road" project at the forefront, analyst says.

The route from Iraq’s Grand Faw Port to Turkey and on to Europe, is advancing "with discipline," Middle East Council on Global Affairs analyst Muhanad Seloom told Fox News Digital, calling it a "permanent" and "transformative" wartime shift.

Seloom’s comments came as President Donald Trump warned Tehran against further escalation in the Gulf and signaled the U.S. is prepared to act to keep the strait open.

Iranian forces have laid mines and threatened commercial traffic in the narrow waterway. As of Sunday, the shipping route remains effectively closed.

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"Iraq’s Development Road means every container moving through Basra instead of Iranian-controlled waters is a reduction in Tehran’s leverage over Iraq," said Seloom.

"The real scale, independent estimates put the Development Road closer to $24 billion, and the project is now moving with discipline," he said.

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani inaugurated the first 63-kilometer stretch of the Development Road in 2025. Phase 1 is due for completion by 2028.

"What was described by the Iraqi government as a flagship of Iraqi statecraft now has a regional rationale that governments and financiers treat as essential rather than aspirational," Seloom, an assistant professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, explained.

"Sudani seems to be positioning Iraq exactly where he thinks its geography always suggested, as a connecting state between the Gulf, Turkey and Europe," he said.

WATCH SHIPPING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ GRIND TO A HALT AMID IRAN CONFLICT

But other regional infrastructure, Seloom says, is also being pushed forward in parallel.

Saudi Arabia’s East-West Petroline pipeline is operating near its 7 million-barrel-per-day capacity, with expansion plans under review.

The UAE’s ADCOP pipeline to Fujairah is also at maximum use, with a second line under discussion, he said. "Turkey’s Zangezur and Middle Corridors bypass Iran via the Caucasus and are four to five years out."

He added: "Six Gulf-backed overland fiber projects are also underway through Syria, Iraq and the Horn of Africa."

Iran reimposed closure measures on the Strait of Hormuz on April 18, reducing traffic to just a handful of vessels per day compared with a pre-war average of roughly 130 to 140.

The restrictions, including on ships, have come under fire in recent days, and interceptions trace back to the start of the war on Feb. 28, when Tehran first moved to block transit following U.S.-Israeli strikes.

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"Hormuz remains indispensable for energy, but it is no longer treated as a default. That shift is permanent given the war," Seloom said.

For Iraq’s corridor, it is "potentially transformative," Seloom said, with $4 billion per year in projected transit revenue and a repositioning from an oil rentier state to a logistics state.

"Turkey will be the single largest beneficiary. Combined with the Zangezur and Middle Corridors, Ankara becomes the overland bridge between Asia and Europe," he said. "Europe will have an additional overland option on a 2028-plus timeline, but nothing for the current crisis. It marginally reduces structural dependence on the unreliable Suez–Red Sea axis."

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Iran turmoil erupts: Ultra-hardliner who mocked Trump poised to take over nuclear talks

Further signs of turmoil are emerging in Iran’s U.S. negotiating team as hardliner Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf looks set to be replaced by a veteran conservative known for rejecting nuclear concessions, according to reports.

Iran International reported April 24 that Saeed Jalili, 60 — who already leads what has been described as a "shadow government" — is expected to succeed Ghalibaf following his sudden departure amid internal disputes.

Jalili also heads Iran’s ultra-hardline faction known as the Stability Front (Paydari), which is known to be a "bastion of ultraconservatism in Iran," according to reports.

Ali Safavi, an official with the Iranian opposition coalition, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), told Fox News Digital that Jalili "has evolved from a nuclear negotiator to an influential actor within the regime."

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Ghalibaf was reportedly forced to step down after attempting to bring the nuclear issue into talks with Washington, a move that triggered backlash within Iran’s political establishment.

President Donald Trump had called off plans for U.S. envoys to travel to Pakistan for peace talks with Iran on April 25.

The rivalry between Jalili and Ghalibaf is said to span more than a decade and intensified during the 2024 elections, when Jalili refused to step aside, contributing to the victory of President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Safavi said, "The increased visibility of latent divisions stems from recurring nationwide uprisings, deep economic crises and the pressures of war, all of which have intensified internal feuding.

"Far from signaling transformation, these developments reflect accelerating erosion and mounting pressure, deepening fractures and leaving the regime ever weaker and more vulnerable," he added.

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Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is also seeking a continued leading role in negotiations, highlighting competing centers of influence over Iran’s diplomatic strategy, sources said.

Araghchi is in Islamabad, Pakistan, after returning from a short trip to Muscat, Oman, where he is holding high-level diplomatic talks on the conflict. Reports indicate Araghchi will travel to Moscow.

Jalili’s potential appointment, however, signals a hardening of Iran’s stance, with more emphasis on resistance over compromise.

"Within this regime, there are a number of constants espoused by all factions," Safavi said before highlighting that these were "repression, the export of terrorism and the pursuit of nuclear weapons."

"The factions all ultimately move along a common path: the preservation of power. They differ in methods, not in objectives," Safavi cautioned.

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Jalili, meanwhile, served as Iran’s top nuclear negotiator from 2007 to 2013 under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and later ran for president three times. He also served as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

A former member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Jalili lost his right leg at 21 during the Iran-Iraq War, earning him the title of "Living Martyr".

The Paydari Front, which he is associated with, opposes engagement with the West — particularly the 2015 nuclear deal — and advocates a doctrine of "active resistance."

During Hassan Rouhani’s presidency, Jalili also established a "shadow government" to counter the administration’s policies, especially the nuclear deal.

On April 7, he wrote on X: "Yes — ‘infrastructure’ is on the verge of collapse; the infrastructure of domination and the American order. And after that, a better foundation will be built."

A day earlier, he posted: "‘Shut up’ is not the appropriate response to Trump’s ramblings; let him speak more. Nothing is more effective in laying bare the true nature of the United States than Trump’s outbursts."

"In dealing with this regime," Safavi said, "we must bear in mind that in the 45 years since the mullahs consolidated their rule in 1981 by crushing all peaceful political life, so-called reformists have governed for nearly half that time — presiding over some of its darkest crimes."

"These include the 1988 massacre of 30,000 political prisoners, the assassination of dissidents abroad, the chain murders of intellectuals inside Iran and the relentless pursuit of nuclear weapons."

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World leaders condemn ‘unacceptable’ violence after armed attack disrupts WH Correspondents’ Dinner

World leaders across the globe swiftly condemned political violence and expressed relief that President Donald Trump was unharmed after a chaotic armed attack Saturday night disrupted the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner in Washington, D.C.

Their responses poured in on X after a man armed with guns and knives stormed the lobby of the Washington Hilton and charged toward the ballroom, where Trump, lawmakers, journalists and foreign dignitaries were gathered, prompting Secret Service agents to open fire and guests to dive under tables.

The suspect — later identified as 31-year-old Cole Allen of Torrance, California — was taken into custody, and Trump was rushed offstage unharmed. Officials said the suspect was a guest at the Washington Hilton, where the dinner was being held, and was taken into custody at the scene. He is expected to appear in court on Monday.

In their reactions, world leaders emphasized both solidarity with the United States and concern over rising political violence.

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French President Emmanuel Macron called the incident "unacceptable," writing that "violence has no place in a democracy" while expressing "full support" for Trump.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni echoed that sentiment, warning against political extremism.

"No political hatred can find space in our democracies," she said, adding that democratic nations must not allow "fanaticism to poison the places of free debate and information."

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he was "relieved" Trump, the first lady and Vice President JD Vance were safe, stressing that violence "must be unequivocally condemned."

Leaders across Europe struck a similar tone. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he was "shocked by the scenes," calling the attack one that must be "condemned in the strongest possible terms," particularly given it targeted a high-profile democratic event.

UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said she was "appalled," adding that democracies must "stand together against political violence."

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NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte framed the incident as a broader threat to democratic systems, calling it "an attack on our free and open societies" and reaffirming solidarity with the United States.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the incident as an "attempted assassination," though U.S. authorities have not publicly characterized it as such, saying he and his wife were "shocked" while praising U.S. security forces for their "swift and decisive action." He also wished a speedy recovery to a police officer who was shot in a bullet-resistant vest during the confrontation.

From the Western Hemisphere, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he was "relieved" all attendees were safe but called the episode a "disturbing event," while Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said simply, "Violence should never be the way."

WORLD LEADERS SPLIT OVER MILITARY ACTION AS US-ISRAEL STRIKE IRAN IN COORDINATED OPERATION

Argentine President Javier Milei issued one of the strongest statements, condemning what he described as a "new assassination attempt," and linking the attack to "violent rhetoric of the left all over the world." His characterization has not been confirmed by U.S. officials.

Leaders from beyond the traditional Western alliance also weighed in. Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, said her government "strongly condemns" the attack and emphasized that "violence is never an option," while European Commission Vice President Kaja Kallas highlighted the symbolism of the venue, noting that "an event meant to honour a free press should never become a scene of fear."

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese praised U.S. law enforcement and Secret Service agents for their "swift action" in containing the situation.

The attack marks the latest in a string of security threats against Trump since 2024 and is likely to intensify scrutiny over security protocols at major public events involving the president. It is also likely to renew conversations about rising political violence in the U.S.

Authorities say the suspect acted alone and have not yet identified a motive. FBI and local law enforcement officials descended on the suspect’s Torrance home Saturday night.

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Iran’s good cop, bad cop game implodes as experts warn regime views US as 'evil'

Days after Iran’s leadership projected a unified front, undermining the long-cited moderate-vs.-hardliner divide, President Donald Trump canceled planned talks with Tehran in Islamabad, Pakistan, citing "infighting and confusion" inside the regime.

Iranian-American experts argue that social media posts from Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, President Masoud Pezeshkian and other key officials reveal that the "good cop, bad cop" tactic that the regime exploited to deceive adversaries and secure generous concessions in nuclear negotiations has collapsed.

In a Truth Social post on Saturday, Trump announced he canceled the trip, citing "too much time wasted on traveling" and "too much work!"

"Besides which, there is tremendous infighting and confusion within their ‘leadership,'" the president added, noting "nobody knows who is in charge, including them."

EXILED PRINCE LOOKS TO LEAD IRANIAN PEOPLE IN ENDING ISLAMIC REPUBLIC: 'OUR BERLIN WALL MOMENT'

"Also, we have all the cards, they have none!" Trump wrote. "If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!!"

The implosion of the hardline-moderate dichotomy within the regime could have profound consequences for Trump’s approach to the atomic talks in Islamabad, experts said. Trump appeared to allude to a blurry divide between factions within Iran last week.

"Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is! They just don’t know! The infighting is between the ‘Hardliners,’ who have been losing BADLY on the battlefield, and the ‘Moderates,’ who are not very moderate at all (but gaining respect!), and it is CRAZY!" Trump wrote in an X post Thursday.

MORNING GLORY: PRESIDENT TRUMP LEADS THE WEST TO A BIG WIN AGAINST IRAN

Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei quickly fired back, claiming "due to the strange unity created among compatriots, a fracture has occurred in the enemy."

"With practical gratitude for this blessing, cohesion has become even greater and more steel-like, and the enemies will become more wretched and diminished," Khamenei wrote in a reply. "The enemy's media operations, by targeting the minds and psyches of the people, intend to undermine national unity and security; may our negligence not allow this sinister intent to come to fruition."

Mariam Memarsadeghi, a senior fellow at The Macdonald-Laurier Institute and founder and director of the Cyrus Forum for Iran's Future, told Fox News Digital the Islamic Republic has, for decades, fooled Western policymakers by sending moderates to negotiations as a "window dressing for its terror and subjugation."

KHAMENEI’S DEATH OPENS UNCERTAIN CHAPTER FOR IRAN’S ENTRENCHED THEOCRACY

The officials would then tell their counterparts that they are under pressure from hardliners, implying that the West must make concessions to strengthen them internally.

"Because of the war, the Trump administration is in a remarkably advantageous situation vis-à-vis the imperial terror state, one never before attempted, much less achieved," Memarsadeghi said. "But every time Trump says regime change has already happened, he denies America the opportunity to finally, truly be rid of the world’s top sponsor of terror and the existential threat it poses not just to the people of Iran but to all the world."

Navid Mohebbi, who worked as a Persian media analyst for the State Department's Public Affairs Bureau, cautioned that while rivalries and factions do exist within the Islamic Republic, they are united on the regime’s core principles.

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"Their disagreements are primarily over tactics, not fundamental direction," Mohebbi told Fox News Digital, stressing that real decision-making power in Iran has always rested with the supreme leader and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

"So-called moderates have never had the final say on key strategic issues and are often used to soften the regime’s image abroad," he said. "From the perspective of the Iranian people, there has been little difference. Across administrations labeled 'moderate' or 'hardline,' the system has consistently relied on repression."

Mohebbi cited the example of Iranian regime President Hassan Rouhani, who presented himself as a moderate, but whose security forces violently killed 1,500 protesters during the November 2019 uprising.

IRAN'S SUPREME LEADER SAYS NUCLEAR TALKS WITH TRUMP ADMIN WOULD NOT BE 'WISE'

"The same pattern has continued under Masoud Pezeshkian in the January 2026 protest massacre, reinforcing the reality that these labels have not translated into meaningful change on the ground," he said.

A regional official, however, insisted there are clashes between moderates and hardliners in Iran. The official told Fox News Digital that Pezeshkian is a moderate, but he "could not even make good on his campaign promise regarding internet freedom. To be honest, he’s not even been able to do s---."

"The joint reaction by the heads of the three branches of power was in response to Trump’s reference to the issue of rift, and also to the fact that there are indeed hardliners and moderates," the official added. "Look, whenever Iran wants to make concessions, they throw moderates under the bus so that the moderates make a deal, and then, the hardliners blame them for the same concessions all of them had agreed to make."

Lawdan Bazargan, who was imprisoned by the Islamic Republic in the 1980s for her political dissident activities, told Fox News Digital that what officials are seeing now is not the disappearance of the divide, but the exposure of what that divide actually was.

"In reality, all of these figures — Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf [speaker of Iran’s parliament], Saeed Jalili [member of the Expediency Discernment Council], Pezeshkian, Ahmad Vahidi [head of the IRGC], Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei [head of Iran’s judiciary] — operate within the same ideological framework," Bazargan said. "They are all committed to the preservation of the system, the projection of power in the region, and confrontation with what they define as ‘the forces of evil,’ namely the United States and Israel."

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Latin American leftists met in Spain, signaling push against US influence on continent

MEXICO CITY: The recent high-profile gathering of leftist leaders in Barcelona, convened by Spain’s socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, is drawing increasing attention for what analysts describe as a broader geopolitical positioning that could challenge U.S. influence across Latin America and beyond.

The summit brought together Brazil president Lula da Silva, Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, and Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum. Framed as a platform for addressing inequality, climate change and the rise of right-wing political movements, yet the rhetoric coming from it has raised questions in Washington and across the region about whether a more coordinated political counterweight to the United States is taking shape.

Without naming the Trump administration, Sánchez warned of the "normalization of the use of force" and "attempts to undermine international law", as criticism of U.S. foreign policy. He also pushed for reforms to global institutions, arguing that the current system no longer reflects today’s geopolitical realities, a position that implicitly challenges long-standing U.S. leadership in those bodies.

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"The Barcelona summit reflects a deliberate effort by Pedro Sánchez to position himself as a leading figure within an emerging progressive bloc that is increasingly critical of U.S. foreign policy under President Trump," Juan Angel Soto, founder and CEO of Fortius Consulting told Fox News Digital.

"This positioning is particularly complex given Spain’s structural anchoring in both the European Union and NATO, which traditionally align it closely with Washington. However, Sánchez has simultaneously deepened ties with the Global South, evident in his growing proximity to China, as well as to leaders such as Lula, Sheinbaum, and Petro, suggesting a dual-track foreign policy that seeks greater autonomy from U.S. influence," Soto said.

The Colombian leader tied global tensions directly to economic and energy systems, arguing that fossil fuel dependence has fueled conflict and inequality, an argument that aligns with broader criticism of Western-led economic models.

Roberto Salinas León, Director of International Affairs at Universidad de la Libertad in Mexico City, told Fox News Digital: "The ill-named summit "In Defense of Democracy" held in Barcelona brought together notable "progressives" with an aim to bring together a global contingent opposed to, well, Trump 2.0. How convenient."

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"Petro stated that ‘Latin American progressivism is a ray of hope for a humanity in crisis.’ Yet these would-be spokespersons for democracy have supported such inhumane brutal dictatorships like Cuba, Nicaragua, Maduro’s Venezuela, Iran, and others. This gathering is more aptly characterized as a political mascara of electoral autocracies, each leader undermining the institutional checks and balances of open liberal democracies," he said.

Brazil’s Lula criticized what he described as interventionist policies by major powers and called for a rebalancing of global governance, including changes to the U.N. Security Council. At one point, he characterized recent U.S. leadership as contributing to global instability, reinforcing a central theme of the summit: that the current international order needs to be redefined.

"The new Cold War is being waged between China and the United States; it is this very rivalry that is at stake in every country participating in the summit. Lula’s concern regarding the resurgence of the right has become patently obvious, particularly when observing Argentina and Chile, where the victories of Milei and Kast have ushered in ‘winds of change.’ We are, quite literally, living through times reminiscent of the fall of the Berlin Wall, specifically, the collapse of ‘21st-century socialism’ across Hispanic America, and this is precisely what has them so worried," Brazilian political analyst Sandra Bronzina told Fox News Digital

"When the global progressive left rails against the United States, talking about sovereignty and peace, or speaking out against war, they are not doing so out of mere altruism or good intentions. Rather, they are driven by a shadowy self-interest: ensuring that China continues to colonize our nations, a process that is, evidently, already well underway."

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Mexico’s Sheinbaum underscored the principle of national sovereignty, reiterating Latin America’s longstanding emphasis on non-intervention. She joined other leaders in opposing sanctions on countries such as Cuba, signaling a willingness to coordinate positions that diverge sharply from U.S. policy in the region.

Taken together, analysts say the messaging out of Barcelona suggests the early stages of a loosely aligned bloc, one that is increasingly willing to challenge U.S. positions on global governance, regional policy and economic strategy.

Yet even as leaders in Barcelona warn of a rising right-wing threat, political realities across the Americas tell a different story, one that may resonate more directly with U.S. audiences.

In Argentina, sweeping economic reforms focused on deregulation and fiscal discipline have captured global attention as an alternative to state-led models. In El Salvador, aggressive security policies have dramatically reduced violence. And in Ecuador, a renewed focus on law-and-order and institutional control is emerging as a response to escalating cartel violence.

Analysts say these examples highlight a counter to the Barcelona narrative in that a significant portion of the region is moving toward policies centered on security, market reforms and stronger state authority — priorities that often align more closely with U.S. strategic interests.

Experts say the contrast is striking. On one side, a group of leaders in Barcelona is calling for a rethinking of global systems long associated with U.S. leadership. On the other, governments across the hemisphere are experimenting with approaches that emphasize economic liberalization and strong security measures.

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US embassy in London warns to 'exercise increased caution' near Jewish sites in UK, Europe after attacks

The U.S. embassy in London on Friday warned Americans to "exercise increased caution" while visiting Jewish and American areas in the U.K. and in Europe because of a recent rise in threats.

"The U.S. Embassy in London notes recent attacks and threats targeting Jewish and American institutions in the United Kingdom and Europe," the alert said. "U.S. citizens, particularly those visiting institutions serving Jewish or American interests, should remain alert and exercise increased caution."

The embassy further advised Americans to remain alert while visiting tourist and expat areas and houses of worship, review personal security plans and to check local media for updates.

Concerned citizens can also enroll in the State Department's Safe Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive travel and security updates.

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The advisory followed a series of recent antisemitic attacks in the U.K. and in Europe, including an arson attack on four ambulances linked to Jewish charity in London on March 23, an April 18 attack on the Kenton United Synagogue in London, and a March explosion at a Jewish school in Amsterdam that authorities called a "targeted attack against the Jewish community."

No one was injured, but the school was damaged.

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U.K. authorities are investigating whether "thugs for hire" backed by Iran are instigating the attacks in London, GB News reported.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer told the Jewish Chronicle: "In relation to malign state actors more generally, proscription, we do need legislation in order to take necessary measures, and that is legislation that we're bringing forward as soon as we can."

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US targets Chinese refinery in sweeping Iran oil crackdown, sanctions ‘shadow fleet’ tankers

The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on Friday sanctioned a major Chinese oil refinery and dozens of ships tied to Iran's "shadow fleet," escalating efforts to choke off Tehran's main source of revenue.

Officials said in a press release the move targets Hengli Petrochemical, one of Iran’s largest oil buyers, along with a network of shipping companies and tankers responsible for transporting billions of dollars worth of petroleum products to foreign markets. 

The Treasury Department identified these "shadow fleet" vessels as the financial lifeline for Iran's "unstable regime."

SECOND TANKER SEIZED NEAR VENEZUELA AS US ENFORCES OIL BLOCKADE

The crackdown is part of Economic Fury, a broader campaign to squeeze Iran’s economy by limiting its ability to sell oil abroad, revenue the U.S. says funds the regime’s military and destabilizing activities across the Middle East.

"Economic Fury is imposing a financial stranglehold on the Iranian regime, hampering its aggression in the Middle East and helping to curtail its nuclear ambitions," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.

Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery Co. is a China-based "teapot" refinery, a term used for independent facilities known for purchasing discounted crude, including from sanctioned countries.

The refinery, one of China’s largest independent facilities, has received Iranian oil cargoes from sanctioned shadow fleet vessels since at least 2023. Hengli has also purchased oil tied to Iran’s armed forces, generating hundreds of millions of dollars for the Iranian military.

Hengli has also received shipments tied to Sepehr Energy Jahan Nama Pars Company, a firm identified by U.S. officials as a front for Iran’s armed forces that helps facilitate oil sales abroad. 

The company operates on behalf of Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff, using a network of intermediaries and vessels to move sanctioned crude, with proceeds helping fund the country’s military programs and regional proxy groups.

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The new sanctions also target the network that makes these oil sales possible, a "shadow fleet" of aging tankers and shell companies that move petroleum across global markets while evading sanctions and obscuring the origin of shipments.

These ships avoid detection by transferring cargo from one tanker to another in the open ocean. Treasury officials said 19 vessels were targeted in the action.

The move is part of the Trump administration’s renewed "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, aimed at cutting off the regime’s primary source of revenue through oil exports and sanctions enforcement.

U.S. officials say oil exports remain the backbone of Iran’s economy, and efforts to restrict those flows are designed to limit the government’s ability to fund its military, support proxy groups and advance its nuclear program.

Treasury officials warned that additional sanctions are likely as the U.S. continues targeting the networks, intermediaries and buyers that enable Iran to move oil on the global market.

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