Trump’s 'Economic Fury' squeezes Iran — but can Tehran outlast the pressure?

As the Trump administration escalates its campaign against Iran through sanctions, naval pressure and financial enforcement, a central question is emerging: Can unprecedented economic strain truly weaken the regime, or will Iran’s rulers once again absorb the pain, suppress unrest and survive?

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Tuesday post on X that the "Economic Fury" campaign already has disrupted "tens of billions of dollars in revenue" that would otherwise support terrorism, while arguing Iran’s inflation has doubled and its currency has sharply depreciated under the current maximum pressure campaign.

Bessent also warned that Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal, is nearing storage capacity and could soon force production cuts, which he said may cost the regime an additional roughly $170 million per day in lost revenue.

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The escalating pressure campaign marks one of the most aggressive U.S. efforts in years to economically isolate Iran. But the central question is whether this strategy can force meaningful concessions from a regime that has historically absorbed economic pain, or whether it risks triggering broader instability — from energy market shocks to regional escalation — before Iran is pushed to a breaking point.

A senior administration official told Fox News Digital that Treasury is aggressively expanding "Economic Fury" beyond traditional sanctions by targeting Iran’s ability to generate, move and repatriate funds across oil, banking, cryptocurrency and covert trade networks.

The official said Treasury has disrupted billions in projected Iranian oil revenue in recent days alone, including freezing $344 million in regime-linked cryptocurrency, while also escalating pressure on Chinese "teapot" refineries, foreign banks and sanctions-evasion networks facilitating Tehran’s trade.

The Treasury also has warned financial institutions in China, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates and Oman that continued facilitation of Iranian illicit commerce could trigger secondary sanctions, while signaling that foreign companies — including airlines — may also face penalties if they support prohibited Iranian activity.

But Alireza Nader, an Iranian independent analyst based in Washington, is skeptical that economic pressure alone will force a strategic breaking point. 

"It looks like a game of chicken and I think the regime thinks that it can win this game of chicken with President Trump," he told Fox News Digital.

"I don’t see this economic blockade … leading to some sort of breaking point for the regime," Nader added, arguing that Iran’s leadership has repeatedly shown it is willing to let ordinary citizens bear extraordinary suffering to preserve power.

"The regime cares about staying in power," he said, warning that public hardship does not necessarily translate into vulnerability.

"The economic clock is moving much faster on Iran than on its adversaries."

That skepticism stands in stark contrast to Miad Maleki, a former Treasury sanctions analyst, who argues Washington may now hold its greatest leverage over Iran since the 1979 revolution.

"We’ve never had the level of leverage that we have today with Iran in the history of our conflict … since 1979," Maleki said.

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For Maleki, what makes this moment different is not sanctions alone, but the convergence of sanctions, naval blockade and aggressive secondary enforcement.

He said Iran’s already fragile economy — marked by 104% food inflation and a roughly 90% collapse in purchasing power — could face roughly $435 million in daily economic losses if maritime restrictions hold.

"Iran’s economy relies on the Strait of Hormuz more than any other economy," Maleki said, arguing that disruption around the strait may ultimately hurt Iran faster than its adversaries.

If restrictions are fully enforced, Maleki warned, "crude onshore storage shortages in about 7 to 14 days, then they can buy a few weeks with filling up a dozen tankers already in the Persian Gulf, but they have to start dropping oil extraction now in anticipation of running out of storage. They are also facing gasoline shortages in matters of days or a few weeks, forced oil-production cuts, and eventually banking or salary strain."

Independent shipping intelligence from from shipping intelligence firm Kpler suggests Iran’s oil bottleneck may already be intensifying, though perhaps on a slightly longer timeline than some sanctions advocates predict.

Before the conflict, Iran exported roughly 2 million barrels of oil per day, Court Smith, Kpler’s head of engagements and partnerships, told Lauren Simonetti at FOX Business, but current exports appear closer to 1 million barrels daily, leaving an estimated 1 million barrels per day accumulating in storage.

Smith estimated Iran may have roughly 30 days before shoreside storage faces severe capacity constraints under current conditions, while warning that older fields or marginal wells could already be facing early shut-in pressures.

To buy time, Iran has reportedly begun pulling decades-old tankers out of storage for temporary floating capacity, a sign of mounting logistical strain. 

Former Israeli national security adviser Yaakov Amidror argues the blockade should not be judged by whether it forces immediate capitulation, but by whether Washington has the patience to let time erode Iran’s strength.

"Blockade is one of the oldest forms of warfare," Amidror said. "Blockade equals time."

In his view, the strategy’s advantage is precisely that it imposes relatively low costs on the United States while gradually exhausting Iran’s economy.

"The siege does its work. It weakens Iran," he said, describing it as one of the cheapest long-term methods of pressure available.

Amidror also pushed back forcefully against claims that modern enforcement is unrealistic.

"I don’t buy the idea that the U.S. Navy in the 21st century can’t monitor the 35 kilometers of blockade" he said, arguing that American surveillance, satellites and naval assets are more than capable of controlling the choke point over time.

Danny Citrinowicz, a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs, offers a far more skeptical view.

"The blockade won’t force Iran to capitulate," Citrinowicz said.

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"This country is under sanctions since 1979 … they know how to make adjustments," he added.

"The regime isn't just dependent on oil and energy exports to survive, it has other means of income," Nader argued, "Oil and natural gas are its biggest sources of income, but I think this regime has made a calculation that it can withstand even months of economic siege because it may think that the Trump administration is more vulnerable to political pressure."

"Look," he added, "American voters vote in the president and vote out the president. In Iran, nobody's voted in and out. The regime maintains power through brutal force. If there are public disturbances, if there are new uprisings, the regime will try to deal with them as it has in the past to mass violence, killing thousands of people. That's how this regime stays in power."

Citrinowicz warned that Iran may escalate regionally or exploit global energy vulnerabilities long before economic collapse forces surrender, potentially driving oil prices sharply upward and creating international political pressure before Tehran truly breaks.

"In the pain game … the world will feel that before," he said.

That leaves the administration facing a strategic endurance contest: Can economic warfare degrade Iran faster than the regime can adapt, repress and weaponize global pain?

Nader believes Iran’s rulers may still calculate that they can outlast U.S. patience through repression and resource management.

Maleki believes the economic "clock is moving much faster" on Iran than on its adversaries.

Amidror argues time itself may be Washington’s greatest weapon.

And Citrinowicz warns that if the United States expects quick capitulation, it may be underestimating both Iran’s resilience and its willingness to escalate.

Fox News Digital has reached out to the Iranian mission to the U.N., CENTCOM and the Pentagon for comment. 

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Global famine fears rise as Hormuz crisis threatens ‘eight-year,' Suez-scale disruption

Analysts warn global famine fears are rising as food prices climb and fragile supply chains are strained during the Strait of Hormuz crisis, raising the risk of a prolonged, Suez-scale, eight-year disruption.

As the conflict entered Day 62, the U.S. maintained its naval blockade of traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports, while Iran continued to effectively close the Strait.

"Best case, there is an agreement between the U.S. and Iran within the next few weeks, and the Strait reopens," Lars Jensen, CEO and partner at Vespucci Maritime, told Fox News Digital.

"And it has to be a deal where there is trust that Iran is sufficiently satisfied with the deal such that they do not suddenly close the strait again.

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"Even in that case, it will still take months for the supply chains to revert back to normality."

President Donald Trump announced April 21 he would delay renewed strikes on Iran until it presents a proposal for long-term peace, effectively extending a 14-day ceasefire indefinitely. 

Trump said Washington’s blockade of Iranian ports has been effective, urging Tehran to "just give up" as tensions escalate over the waterway.

"Worst case, we can look at the eight-year closure of the Suez Canal from 1967 to 1975," Jensen said.

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"Despite its importance to the global economy, it proved impossible to reopen the canal for those eight years," he said.

The Suez Canal, shut from 1967 to 1975 after the Arab-Israeli conflict, has faced recurring disruption, including Red Sea attacks since 2023, driving up insurance costs, creating a "shadow blockade" and curbing traffic.

For Hormuz, Jensen says fertilizer, which is central to agricultural production, is the most critical factor, and any sustained disruption could quickly ripple through global food systems.

"Fertilizer is the most important element. Thirty percent of the world’s seaborne fertilizer comes from the Persian Gulf," Jensen said. "Fertilizer prices are already rising fast," he warned.

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"In wealthy countries, it means more expensive food come harvest season, and, in poor countries, it means that farmers right now cannot afford fertilizer," Jensen added.

"This will lead to the harvest being lower later in the season, leading to rapid increases in food prices in very poor countries. And such a situation increases the risk of famine and conflict."

Diplomatic efforts remained fragile between the U.S. and Iran as of Thursday, with limited signs of progress.

According to reports, a giant banner hangs on a building in Tehran’s central Enqelab Square declaring, "The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed; the entire Persian Gulf is our hunting ground."

"Cargo vessels are not going through for the simple reason that commercial companies do not want to see their seafarers potentially killed," Jensen added.

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Mother-in-law of slain beauty queen arrested after international manhunt

Following a two-week manhunt, authorities have arrested the suspected fugitive mother-in-law accused of killing a former Mexican beauty queen, Mexican officials announced Thursday.

Authorities said 27-year-old Carolina Flores Gómez, who was crowned Miss Teen Universe Baja California in 2017, was fatally shot on April 15 inside her apartment in one of Mexico City’s most affluent neighborhoods, according to local outlet El Pais.

Erika María was captured in Venezuela after Mexican authorities obtained an arrest warrant and worked in coordination with Interpol to issue a Red Notice, enabling Venezuelan law enforcement to locate and detain her following the alleged murder, Mexican officials said. 

"The detained individual is currently in the custody of authorities in that country, while the necessary procedures are carried out to formalize her extradition to Mexico," the Mexico City Attorney General’s Office said.

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Maria was identified as a lead suspect in the murder investigation, according to local reports, as video evidence later surfaced on social media showing the mother-in-law at the scene.

The victim was found with 12 gunshot wounds, including six to the head and six to the chest, inside a Polanco neighborhood apartment she shared with her son, Alejandro, and the couple’s 8-month-old child, Mexican outlet Record reported. 

The son is also under investigation after reports indicated he allowed his mother to flee the scene before reporting the shooting the following day, raising the possibility of a cover-up, El Pais added.

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Video recorded by a baby monitor, released by local outlet Reforma, appeared to capture the moments leading up to the alleged killing, all while the son was nearby caring for the baby.

In the clip, the mother was seen following Flores into a room before multiple gunshots were heard, followed by a scream.

In response, the son appeared to walk into the frame holding his child to confront his mother, asking what had happened.

CONNECTICUT MAN ALLEGEDLY KILLED A MOTHER, HER INFANT SON OVER $400 SHE OWED HIM FOR RENTING CAR

In a baffling turn, Maria appeared to respond callously to her son.

"Nothing, she just made me angry," the mom said as she walked away.

"What are you doing? She is my family," he said. 

The mother was then heard explaining, "You are mine and she stole you."

Flores’ mother, Reyna Gomez Molina, told Univision News that the son allegedly delayed reporting the incident out of fear that the child would be placed in foster care.  

"Thinking that if he was arrested, the baby would go to a children’s home. He made sure to record videos so they would know how to feed the child while he was away taking care of all the paperwork. That’s what he told me," she said, adding that her offer to take care of her grandson was declined.

She had also pressed the son to clarify whether he had been next to the victim the entire time before reporting the incident but did not provide further details, according to the outlet. 

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Israel defense chief warns strikes on Iran could resume soon, signals campaign not over

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned Thursday that Israel may soon resume military action against Iran, signaling that despite what he described as devastating setbacks to Tehran, Israel views the broader campaign as potentially unfinished.

Speaking at a ceremony promoting the incoming Israeli Air Force commander, Katz said Iran had been pushed "years backward" in the past year but suggested Israel may soon need to act again to secure long-term strategic goals.

"Iran has suffered extremely severe blows over the past year, blows that set it back years in every field," Katz said.

Still, Katz’s sharpest warning suggested that despite the current ceasefire, Israeli leaders do not see the confrontation with Iran as resolved. 

ISRAELI OFFICIALS REPORTEDLY WARN IRAN'S BALLISTIC MISSILES COULD TRIGGER SOLO MILITARY ACTION AGAINST TEHRAN

Instead, his remarks mirror President Donald Trump’s insistence that pressure on Iran will continue until its capacity to rebuild is curtailed. 

"The blockade stays until there’s a real deal," Trump said Thursday, according to Axios, signaling that Washington intends to maintain pressure until Iran addresses U.S. demands over its nuclear program and broader security concerns.

"We support this effort and provide the necessary backing, but it is possible that soon we will be required to act again to ensure the achievement of those goals," Katz said.

The warning came as Israel’s Defense Ministry announced a dramatic military resupply surge, with two cargo ships docking in Ashdod and Haifa and multiple transport aircraft arriving within 24 hours, carrying roughly 6,500 tons of military equipment, including thousands of air and ground munitions, military trucks and combat vehicles.

Since the start of Operation Roaring Lion military campaign against Iran, Israel says more than 115,600 tons of military equipment have arrived through 403 flights and 10 maritime shipments, underscoring what Israeli officials describe as preparations for sustained or expanded conflict. 

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Maj. Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror, former Israeli national security advisor, told Fox News Digital that Washington and Jerusalem are now seriously preparing for two possible paths: a prolonged blockade designed to economically exhaust Iran, or renewed military action.

"Israel and the United States are seriously preparing for two real options, and the decision, when it comes, could be made very quickly," Amidror said. "One is to continue the siege, a blockade that can slowly exhaust Iran. The other is war."

Amidror, who is currently a distinguished fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, said the extensive U.S. logistical buildup suggests Washington is preparing for either path.

"The Americans are building logistics, moving forces, and preparing very seriously," he said. "At some point, they may feel they are so ready that leadership says, ‘We are prepared, let’s go.’"

But he emphasized that for Israel, resuming military action would likely be easier and faster.

"For Israel, it is easier," Amidror said. "We need less logistics. We are already in the region, rebuilding strength, improving intelligence and accumulating power while Iran’s capabilities are being weakened."

Iran’s U.N. mission declined to comment.

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Rubio warns China after Panama ship detentions, calls hemisphere sovereignty 'non-negotiable'

Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned China that "the sovereignty of our hemisphere is non-negotiable" after the U.S. and regional allies accused Beijing of detaining Panama-flagged ships in a dispute tied to canal port control.

In a joint statement with Bolivia, Costa Rica, Guyana, Paraguay and Trinidad and Tobago, the U.S. said China’s actions targeting Panama-flagged vessels were a "blatant attempt to politicize maritime trade" and infringe on regional sovereignty, framing the dispute as a broader strategic test over control of one of the world’s most critical commercial arteries.

While the Panama dispute centers on shipping detentions rather than a physical blockade, critics increasingly view it alongside battles over other strategic choke points, such as the Strait of Hormuz, as part of a widening contest over whether Beijing or Washington will shape the rules governing global trade and energy corridors.

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The confrontation follows Panama’s Supreme Court decision earlier in 2026 to invalidate the legal framework behind Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison’s long-held control of the Balboa and Cristobal terminals flanking the Panama Canal, a choke point that handles roughly 5% of global maritime trade. 

U.S. regulators have monitored nearly 70 Panama-flagged vessels detained by Chinese authorities since March 8, according to Reuters — a surge American officials say appears designed to retaliate against Panama and pressure global shipping.

"China has used Iran to destabilize the Middle East. In effect, Iran has been China’s proxy," China expert Gordon Chang told Fox News Digital, arguing Beijing’s actions in Panama fit a broader global pattern in which China uses economic leverage, trade pressure and regional partners to expand influence while condemning similar tactics from Washington.

Chang said Beijing is now facing growing resistance as the U.S. increasingly moves not only against China directly, but also against governments and geopolitical flash points he argues have strengthened Beijing’s hand.

"Trump apparently decided that he would counter this sly tactic by taking China’s proxies — Venezuela, Cuba and Iran — off the board," Chang said.

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He also framed pressure on Iran and threats to the Strait of Hormuz as part of a larger strategic effort aimed at both Tehran and Beijing.

"Closing the Strait of Hormuz is a two-fer, starving Iran’s regime and shaking China’s already fragile economy," Chang said. "Trump is using energy to reorder the world."

Chang also accused Beijing of hypocrisy over trade.

"China’s Communists invented hypocrisy. Nobody does hypocrisy better than the Chinese Communists," he said, arguing that China long benefited from a global trading system it increasingly weaponized for geopolitical purposes.

"The elemental truth is that China started this cycle of action and retaliation," Chang said. "If China had not threatened America, America would not have leaned on Panama. If America had not leaned on Panama, China would not have detained Panamanian vessels."

China has rejected accusations that it is politicizing trade, with its foreign ministry arguing U.S. criticism reflects Washington’s own strategic ambitions around the canal.

China's Foreign Ministry called the statement on Wednesday "entirely baseless and misleading", said it would take steps to safeguard China's interests in Panama, and accused the United States of politicizing ports, according to Reuters.

"China also urges the relevant countries not to be deceived or exploited by malevolent forces," added Lin Jian, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson.

Fox News Digital reached out to the Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C., for comment but did not receive a response in time for publication.

Reuters contributed to this article.

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‘No credibility’: Obama’s top Iran negotiator torched by State Department after ripping Trump war plan

As the leader of President Obama’s negotiating team on the nuclear agreement with Iran, Wendy Sherman recently launched a no-holds-barred attack on President Donald Trump’s Iran strategy over the weekend.

Sherman, who served as under-secretary of state for political affairs during the Obama administration and as deputy Secretary of State under President Biden, took aim at Trump’s Iran policy in recent interviews.

Sherman’s assault on the Trump administration’s war strategy in a Bloomberg News raised eyebrows because it comes at a time when the administration’s strategy is inflicting enormous economic pressure on Tehran’s rulers via the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

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Having played a key role in sealing the widely criticized 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, which Trump withdrew from in 2018, she slammed Trump’s Iran plan in the Bloomberg interview. "He doesn’t have a strategy. He’s very tactical [and] very transactional — as he was as a developer. In this case, I don’t think that approach will work."

She added that "He has cost our alliances, American taxpayers, 13 American lives, our inventory of weapons, our ability to project power abroad."

In response to her controversial comments, State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott strongly pushed back, telling Fox News Digital, "She was literally part of the team that handed the Iranian regime billions of dollars and a roadmap to a nuclear weapon. She has no credibility. The facts: Under the previous administration, wars broke out, and our enemies grew stronger. Under President Trump, historic peace deals have been signed — including an unprecedented peace plan for Gaza — and the Iranian regime will never obtain a nuclear weapon."

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Harvard Law professor Alan Dershowitz, who just dropped his Democratic Party membership by registering as a Republican, told Fox News Digital: "She is the primary villain of the deal that gave Iran a nuclear bomb. She has no credibility. If Iran develops a bomb, it should put her name on it."

Adding to the growing anti-Israel sentiment among Democrats, Sherman also attacked Israel in the interview. She said, without giving any evidence, that "I also believe that Prime Minister [Benjamin Netanyahu] has led us down a road — and we have been part of it — that has, in essence, created a genocide in Gaza that has destabilized the Middle East."

When asked about Sherman’s criticism of Israel, Dershowitz said, "She is a bigot and anti-Israel. She sees everything through the lens of Barack Obama."

Obama faced criticism during his tenure for his alleged anti-Israel policies, including allowing an anti-Israel United Security Council Resolution to pass in the last days of his presidency.

In a Wall Street Journal opinion article last week, Dershowitz wrote: "The Democratic Party has become the most anti-Israel party in U.S. history. Last week, all but seven Senate Democrats voted for an arms embargo against the Jewish state… There is no denying that the hard left, anti-Israel wing of the Democratic Party has moved from the fringe to the mainstream."

Asked to respond to the criticism of her remarks on Iran, Israel and Dershowitz’ comments, Solveig Reeker, a representative for Sherman, told Fox News Digital, "I'm sorry Ambassador Sherman is not available at this time and must decline."

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Iran’s $800M oil smuggling scheme uses tankers posing as Iraqi ships to dodge blockade

Sanctioned tankers disguised as Iraqi vessels are moving hundreds of millions of dollars in Iranian crude as President Donald Trump doubled down on the port blockade to squeeze Tehran’s oil lifeline, according to maritime intelligence.

Windward AI claimed Wednesday that a group of U.S.-sanctioned tankers are falsifying their location data to come off as anchored off Iraq while secretly loading Iranian oil at Iranian ports.

"Among the tankers spoofing their location in the area identified by Windward are four VLCCs: Alicia (IMO 9281695), RHN (IMO 9208215), Star Forest (9237632), and Aqua (IMO 9248473), using various flags, including fraudulent registries from Curacao and Malawi," the firm told Fox News Digital.

"For the four VLCCs, each VLCC can hold about 2 million barrels, so four of them would hold 8 million barrels, worth about $800 million at $100 per barrel," Windward said.

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This came as Trump said Wednesday he will keep Iran under a naval blockade until it agrees to a deal addressing U.S. concerns about its nuclear program.

The U.S. administration has demanded that Iran dismantle its uranium enrichment program, while Tehran maintains that enrichment is a sovereign right and nonnegotiable, leaving little room for compromise.

Windward AI noted a "cluster" sanctioned tankers spoofing locations and sighted to the West of the Strait of Hormuz.

"A cluster of 10 Iran-trading, U.S.-sanctioned tankers is now spoofing its AIS location to falsely appear at anchorages off Basrah, Iraq, as the blockade continues to constrict Iranian ports," Windward explained.

"The vessels identified by Windward Multi-Source Intelligence are manipulating their signals to create a digital alibi," the intelligence firm claimed.

"By broadcasting fake destination messages to Iraqi ports, the tankers appear to be in Iraqi waters while covertly sailing to Iran to load sanctioned oil.

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"Once loaded, the vessels re-emerge on AIS to suggest a legitimate Iraqi origin for the cargo."

The U.S. blockade on Iranian ports began April 13 as part of a broader effort to pressure Iran into renegotiating limits on its nuclear program.

The blockade has unfolded in stages, starting with naval deployments and restricted maritime enforcement to limit Iran’s oil exports and economic activity.

Windward said more than two dozen tankers are currently confined west of Hormuz as of Wednesday, with the blockade cutting Iranian oil loadings and exports by more than half.

"This deceptive practice is under intensified scrutiny as the vessels are part of a larger group of more than two dozen tankers currently confined west of Hormuz," the firm said.

"The handysize tanker Paola and Long Range One tanker Adena, both signaling ‘Iraqi owner’ but linked to a sanctioned network."

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The firm claimed three medium-range tankers, including Aqualis, Kush and Charminar, and the LPG carrier Royal H (IMO 9155341), which was newly sanctioned in February, are currently displaying "erratic voyage trails to suggest a loading at the Iraqi port of Khor Al Zubair."

"The tell-tale spoofing signs, including erratic patterns and fake port signals, highlight the shifting tactics used by the dark fleet as the blockade more than halves Iranian oil loadings and exports," the firm said.

Meanwhile. Iran’s Mohammad Ghalibaf slammed U.S. policymakers Wednesday, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, over the impact of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports.

The parliamentary speaker cited "junk advice" and blamed the Treasury for pushing up oil prices.

"Three days in, no well exploded," Ghalibaf said in a post shared on X.

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